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Oregon 43rd in "Underwater" loans

Sunday, November 30, 2008

by Rob Levy, Prudential Northwest Properties

The reports are in, and as expected Oregon is weathering the storm much better than 42 other states. According to Money.com's article Oregon is 43rd in the nation when it comes to home owners owing more on their homes vs. what they are worth.

This is actually skewed by the Bend, Oregon market which was rated at one point as the most overpiced market in the USA and has seen prices drop a huge amount. While THIS article is dated, it also was written about when prices started to fall.

Bottom line; As I reported earlier, the Portland market is doing OK. We are down from 2-7% depending if which data you are reading (NAR-Natiional Assn Realtors vs. Case-Shiller) but people are moving here. My team and I are doing well. As Portland's #1 Realtor for Prudential Northwest Properties, I can report that while our sales are down from last year, we are still selling houses. Even NAR is reporting close to 5,000,000 home sales in 2008 and while that is down from close to 8,000,000 in recent years, it is still 5m people buying and selling homes.

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Sales SOAR in some parts of California

Sunday, November 30, 2008

by Rob Levy, Prudential Northwest Properties

Sales seem to be soaring in some parts of Southern California - so why am I writing about this when I am a Realtor in Portland, Oregon?

Well, a large percentage of our buyers come from California. after all our population is about 3.7M and California's ( our next door neighbor) is almost 37M. Historically a lot of people sell homes there and move here, but recently they have been unable to do so.

Recent posts indicate a change. For example in the Palm Springs area sales are up a whopping 94.3% October 2008 vs. October 2007. Some sites are reporting an 83.9% increase in sales in Orange County. So you can see, we are directly affected. Granted, when looking closer as much as 70% of the sales are "distressed" properties - meaning bank owned (REO), short sales or pre-foreclosures but the bottom line is the inventory is selling which means it is lowering.

The outlook for the Portland area remains the same with Metro Regional government still thinking there will be between 800,000 and 1,000,000 more residents moving to the tri-county area in the next 12-15 years. They expect a huge majority of those people to come from California.

So lets hope those distressed properties keep selling, and then the folks who want to sell their homes and move up here start selling. Then we will be back to normal. With the recent huge drop in mortgage rates - currently 5.35% according to Shawn Headlee with Columbia Mortgage, this should start happening !

Enjoy the rest of your thanksgiving weekend ! ROB

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Rob's Thoughts on the Portland Oregon real estate market

Friday, November 14, 2008

by Rob Levy, Prudential Northwest Properties

I recently got back from the NAR show - the National Association of Realtors trade show in Orlando, Florida. I was honored to be asked to speak to two large groups of agents but the best part is I got to hear what is going on around the country, and I am now trying to figure out how that will affect our market here in Portland, Oregon.

On the one hand, I understand that in some areas of California, particularly Orange county sales are up, way up. Many of them are REO (bank owned) homes. This is a good thing in that it eats up all the inventory and then people will buy owner occupied homes next. It is also good as it could be signaling a bottom. In some areas such as Las Vegas and areas of Florida and the California central valley as much as 75% of the homes sold of late are either bank owned or short sales, but they ARE selling now.

Indications are with the new administration there will be SOMETHING done to get people more comfortable about buying homes, and with the inventory lowered and builders out of business, it could get busy. Here in Portland, we are down about 7% on our number of Realtors for the year, and indications are another 15-25% will not renew their license January 1^st 2009.

I want you to know that I AM here, that sales are down from last year but we are selling homes, more than any other Prudential agent in the greater Portland area, and that we WILL be here to help you with all your real estate needs.

John Mitchell a Portland economist thinks that the recent uptick in sales if it continues could signal an end. His recent article in the Portland Oregonian can be found by clicking HERE.

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